Why Canberra's Afghan and Pakistani Communities Are Bracing for Harder Times Ahead

The recent escalation of military strikes between Pakistan and Afghanistan has sent ripples through Canberra's multicultural heartland, where thousands of Afghan and Pakistani residents are watching developments with mounting concern.

For the roughly 8,000 Afghan-born residents and 12,000 Pakistani-born residents scattered across suburbs like Tuggeranong, Belconnen, and Woden, the geopolitical crisis isn't merely headline news—it's personal. Families have relatives caught in the crossfire. Migration pathways that were already strained are tightening further. And local settlement services are gearing up for what could be a significant influx of people seeking refuge.

"We're seeing increased demand for our counselling services," says Ahmed Hassan, coordinator at the Canberra Multicultural Community Centre on Limestone Avenue. While Hassan emphasises he cannot comment on specific cases, he notes that the organisation has expanded its mental health support hours to accommodate anxious community members. The centre, which serves over 15,000 residents annually from 120 nations, is already operating near capacity.

The timing compounds existing pressures. Rental vacancy rates in Canberra hover around 1.2 percent, with median rents for a two-bedroom apartment sitting at $420 per week—a 23 percent jump since 2022. For newly arrived families with limited English proficiency and no established employment history, finding housing is increasingly brutal.

Migration agent Fatima Khan, who operates a practice near Civic, reports a 40 percent uptick in visa enquiries from Pakistani and Afghan nationals over the past six months. "People are frightened," she explains. "They're asking whether Australia's doors are still open, whether they can bring family members over. The answer remains yes, but the process is slower and more expensive than ever."

The Afghanistan-Australia Association and the Pakistani Community Association, both based in the ACT, are coordinating with Settlement Services International to prepare temporary accommodation and job-training programs. Yet funding pressures loom large. These organisations operate on threadbare budgets, typically reliant on government grants that haven't kept pace with demand.

For Canberra's broader community, this matters acutely. Multicultural neighbourhoods drive local economies—the restaurants, grocers, and service businesses clustered around Belconnen and Civic depend heavily on these communities. Schools in high-migration suburbs like Bonner and Nicholls are already stretching to provide ESL support. Hospitals face increased demand for trauma counselling.

"When migration and settlement services work well, everyone benefits," says Dr Sarah Mitchell, a demographer at the University of Canberra. "But we need intentional investment now, not reactive scrambling later." The coming months will test whether Canberra's institutions can rise to that challenge.

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